Vision Pro demand | Display model in Apple Store

Apple has slashed its shipping estimates for Vision Pro, according to a new Ming-Chi Kuo analyst report. Kuo says that Apple is now targeting shipments between 400,000 and 450,000 units for Vision Pro this year. This is down from the initial market consensus of between 7000,000 and 800,000 units.

The changes have reportedly prompted Apple to revisit its overall strategy for the headset market…

Vision Pro trouble?

Kuo writes that Vision Pro demand has “fallen sharply beyond expectations” in the United States, leading Apple to take a tepid approach to the international launch. Kuo previously reported that Apple would release Vision Pro in additional countries prior to WWDC in June.

Apple has cut its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400–450k units (vs. market consensus of 700–800k units or more).

Apple cut orders before launching Vision Pro in non-US markets, which means that demand in the US market has fallen sharply beyond expectations, making Apple take a conservative view of demand in non-US markets.

Kuo also says that Apple is “reviewing and adjusting” its overall strategy for its headset business. Previous reporting had suggested a second-generation Vision Pro could launch in 2025, but Kuo now suggests this may no longer be the case:

Apple is reviewing and adjusting its head-mounted display (HMD) product roadmap, so there may be no new Vision Pro model in 2025 (the previous expectation was that there would be a new model in 2H25/4Q25). Apple now expects Vision Pro shipments to decline YoY in 2025.

9to5Mac’s Take

Something worth keeping in mind is that the Financial Times reported last July that Apple would make around 400,000 Vision Pro headsets in 2024. It’s possible that Apple increased that target between July and Vision Pro’s release in February, only to now lower it again.

It’s also possible that today’s report from Kuo is misguided, and Apple had always been targeting shipments in the ballpark of 400k units for this year.

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Kuo: Apple cuts Vision Pro shipments, now ‘reviewing and adjusting’ headset strategy – 9to5Mac

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